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Thread: Let's talk about the stock market

  1. #1

    Let's talk about the stock market

    I needed some cash last year, so I took what few stocks I had and sold them. My further reasoning was that I expected QE to end, and at DOW 16K, I expected a correction.

    Once again, timing the market according to factors that rely on common sense has proven to be wrong.

    So. At DOW 17K+, I wonder if cheap oil and a few other normally strong stocks wouldn't make sense. GOOG, in particular, is down 20% as their share of the search market has slightly deteriorated.

    I should pick 5 cheap shares, call it "The DMCTODAY fund" and let you all watch my rise to immense wealth.

    Did I mention that I bought FB at $26, sold it at $40 and now its at $75? Buy low, sell after wimping out.
    Last edited by Duplicate Account; 01-14-2015 at 12:37 PM.
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  2. #2
    Consider this a warning Dead Lesbian Goat's Avatar
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    I sold Apple at around 100 bucks a share. I'm a genius in stocks too.

    I was expecting a huge correction at 14 or 15, I'm still expecting a big one. When the market hit 13k+ I decided it was growing too fast. For the last 13 or 14 months I have been stacking gold and silver and ignoring the market.

  3. #3
    Two words: John Bogle.

    Vanguard has never done me wrong (funds are already back to 75% of their pre-recession value).

    And I don't have to pay a bunch of commissions or management fees.

    Bill Robertson
    #5939

  4. #4
    It's stupid not to take money off of the table when you have it. Maybe you could have left a LITTLE on there, but no harm in taking a little off when you're up. One bad earnings report or press release can take it all away and then some.

    2014 was a poor year for me in stocks. 2013 was much better. Overall, I only wish I had not wasted so much time actively trading. No one knows what the market will do next. My favorite stock in the past 2 - 3 years has been Rite Aid (RAD).

  5. #5
    John Bogle's masters thesis discovered that simply buying various stock indexes across the board, with no other portfolio management whatsoever, does better than 75% of actively managed funds. Vanguard does manage their funds of course, but they still use Bogle's indexing strategy as the starting point.

    Mutual funds are great for those of us without time or patience to fuck with the stock market, but do be advised: management fees and other costs will tear up your investment (Frontline recently did a special that found some funds yielding only 30%): http://www.buyupside.com/mutualfunds/mutualfundfees.htm

    Vanguard is investor owned. Basically it's like a co-op for stock market investing. Just as my investor owned insurance company (Farm Bureau) is saving me thousands of dollars each year on house and car insurance premiums, Vanguard is saving me thousands of dollars each year on management fees. All but two Vanguard funds have no additional costs whatsoever: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...st#tab=general

    I'm sure I pay handsome salaries, have furnished a lavish corporate headquarters, fly a couple of corporate jets, etc, but with expense ratios around .1% I'm not about to read all the crap they send me every year (one bad thing about joining a co-op: they will bury you with share holder information).

    Bill Robertson
    #5939
    Last edited by Greasy DeLorean Mechanic; 01-14-2015 at 01:28 PM.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by MattDavid View Post
    2014 was a poor year for me in stocks. 2013 was much better. Overall, I only wish I had not wasted so much time actively trading. No one knows what the market will do next. My favorite stock in the past 2 - 3 years has been Rite Aid (RAD).
    Wow, really? I thought Rite Aid was getting raped in the morning by CVS and put away wet in the evening by Walgreen's.
    Bungee Cup Holder Guru

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by content22207 View Post
    John Bogle's masters thesis discovered that simply buying various stock indexes across the board, with no other portfolio management whatsoever, does better than 75% of actively managed funds. Vanguard does manage their funds of course, but they still use Bogle's indexing strategy as the starting point.
    Yes. Do never buy a fancy private mutual fund unless you want to buy Manhattan apartments for blonde fund manager secretaries and their naked friends. The question is for me, can I steadily pick blue chips and outperform Vanguard? I still have a suspicion that if I was well positioned with cash during a correction... yeah. But one can dream. It's at least fun to call your own shots.
    Bungee Cup Holder Guru

  8. #8
    I've been expecting a crash after the dow hit 15000. The market ups and downs make no sense so you can not really manage it. Will it ever get back to normal? I think not with the instant buy and sells that are done right at 3:59:59 when the market closes that day. Stocks are way over valued now so I would say wait for that crash to buy stocks but when will it crash?
    Dave M vin 03572
    http://dm-eng.weebly.com/

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by content22207 View Post
    Vanguard has never done me wrong (funds are already back to 75% of their pre-recession value).
    Correction: they recovered in 2013. Last year they increased another 9%, which is typical.

    To be brutally honest I don't pay any attention to the damn things. They were inherited, which means every December I have to pull out a certain minimum amount of money (weird IRS rule: if you inherit someone else's retirement savings you can't add them to your own but have to start withdrawing them right away), but other than that they just sit there and percolate.

    A friend of mine's uncle used to be unbelievably active in the stock market. He was on his smart phone all the time. Basically it was his job. Eventually he burned out, cashed everything in, and bought a humongous 80 foot boat which has been in dry dock ever since.

    Bill Robertson
    #5939

  10. #10
    Senior Member OverlandMan's Avatar
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    i bought some ETNs that are long on crude. They were around $45/share during the summer when crude was around $100/barrel. Oil will go back up. It's just a matter of how long it takes and at what pace.

    One crazy Arab with a nuke and it spikes back up to $150/barrel. Sell sell sell!
    Jeff in Dallas

    My Car http://dmctx.blogspot.com

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